HealthDay News — If expected patterns in HIV diagnosis and survival continue, an estimated 23 percent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) users in the year 2030 will be 65 years of age or older, according to a study recently published in AIDS.

Keri Althoff, Ph.D., M.P.H., from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, and colleagues used an agent-based simulation model to project the future age distribution of people with HIV using ART in the United States under the baseline scenario (expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival) and under achievement of the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75 percent reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020 to 2025 with levels sustained to 2030 (EHE75 percent scenario).

The researchers found that the PEARL (ProjEcting Age, multimoRbidity, and poLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model projected a substantial increase in the number of ART users over time, reaching 909,638 by 2030 under the baseline scenario. From 2020 to 2030, the overall median age increased from 50 to 52 years; in 2030, 23 percent of ART users would be aged 65 years or older. The projected number of ART users was 718,348 in 2030 under the EHE75 percent scenario, with a 70 and 4 percent relative reduction in ART users younger than 30 years and aged 65 years or older, respectively, compared with baseline.


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“Nearly one in four people with HIV will be 65 years or older in the next decade, and we need to prepare to meet the medical needs of these individuals,” Althoff said in a statement.

One author is currently employed by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.

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